SH!T WENT DOWN: The American Civil War, Part II

And why it's not gonna happen

The American Civil War began in 1861 and lasted four years. On one side was the Union (“the North”) that remained loyal to the United States government. This included twenty free states and five border states that said slavery was okay but decided to stay with the Union. The other side was the Confederacy (“the South”) that came to comprise eleven states that were totally cool with enslaving people to keep their agricultural economy going and letting rich white people stay rich via trafficking in human misery.

In November of 1860 Lincoln was elected president on a “hey let’s not allow slavery in these new territories” platform and the southern states were all fuck that we’re outta here cuz white people rule and slavery is awesome and Lincoln said I don’t fucking think so and there was a big-ass war and about 650,000 people died.

Okay so Trump has been indicted for a second time on far more serious charges and his cult followers are flipping the fuck out and threatening Civil War Part II. Are we really looking at another American Civil War?

No, we’re fucking not.

For people who can’t read to the end before commenting, yes, there will almost certainly be even more far-right domestic terrorism, but that’s not a civil war, not an organized rebellion. These fuckers aren’t revolutionaries. It’s going to be more of the same bullshit with radicalized douchenugget pasty penis possessors with easy access to lethal weaponry shooting places up and then after they go down in a blaze of bigoted assholery we see oh wow they had Nazi tattoos and were big Trump supporters gee I wonder what their motivation was?

So, yeah. Even more of that. But not a civil war. And I’ll tell you why.

It’s because they’re fed, and free.

My master’s thesis in history focused on the Latin American rebellions that swept the region in the wake of the successful Cuban Revolution in 1959. They saw what Castro did and said oh shit we can overthrow these dictatorial fuckwagons and have some actual say in how we live our lives and maybe stop getting murdered while we’re starving to death? Sign me the fuck up.

Plenty of people were living in crushing poverty under highly repressive autocratic rightwing regimes in Latin America, and Cuba and Castro inspired them. These people were hungry and brutally oppressed. They had nothing to lose. And even still the percentage who actually joined these rebellions was a tiny fraction of the overall population.

But then the U.S. saw all these communist-inspired rebellions in Latin America and they were freaking out over the “domino theory” of how all those countries would go commie and then the whole world would go commie so send in the CIA to help crush those rebellions via even more brutal oppression and yeah let’s do some genocide too just to be safe.

Anyway, another civil war isn’t going to happen in America. Because they are fed, and they are free.

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What happens if their jaundiced Jesus actually gets convicted and faces prison time? The Gravy Seals in their (empty) head-to-toe “tacticool” gear will get tired of LARPing as wannabe revolutionaries the first time they miss a scheduled KFC meal and go back to coal rolling their Dodge Rams and chanting “Let’s go Brandon!” while masturbating to Tucker Carlson confusion face.

They aren’t starving. Their kids aren’t being murdered; their villages not burnt to the ground. They get to watch internet porn and go to NASCAR races and boycott Bud Light and order extra cheese on their pizzas while pretending to read the Bible and freaking right the fuck out about trans people daring to exist and won’t someone think about the War on Christmas? The life of a guerrilla fighter is Not Fun. It involves the type of danger and deprivation these brainless invertebrates cannot possibly fathom.

They are loud, but they are not brave. They are not determined. Their threats of civil war stop at the keyboard. They are comfortable, and comfortable people don’t go to war if they can help it.

Guerrilla warfare is a fucking nightmare. Instead of sleeping in a comfortable bed, you’re on the ground. Instead of eating take-out, it’s often rodents and roots and whatever else you can scrounge. Never mind the fact that people are trying to kill you all the time. It’s a wretched existence of pain and exhaustion and fear and hunger and death. I don’t know too many Trump fans willing to endure that. They are Not. Desperate. Enough.

As I said, there almost certainly will be an increase in acts of domestic terrorism, especially racially motivated violence. But it won’t be organized rebellions. It will be sporadic and individual. Like some QAnon nutburger who thinks children are being sold into sexual slavery, so he burns down a Black church. White supremacy has invaded police forces, and you know they’re not going to take a Trump conviction lying down; minorities will pay with their lives for that ire.

What about the military? While there are certainly a lot of Trump fans among the enlisted, the brass doesn’t care for him too much. The upper echelons of the U.S. Armed Forces are a proud and educated lot dedicated to upholding the constitution. I expect very few would be willing to go down in history as being responsible for the end of American democracy, such as it is. These are folks who pride themselves on following the rules, and they will likely do so. Especially now since the details of the classified documents fiasco are coming out. Trump has been revealed as a traitor, and the military brass is Not Happy about massive national security breach Eric’s dad is responsible for.

And a lot of his cult members aren’t too thrilled either. They’re getting sick of his bullshit and leaving the cult.

The treason was a bridge too far for a lot of them. Miami was prepared for tens of thousands of Trump fans to show up at Danger Yam’s arrest yesterday, and barely 500 supporters came out. One of them waved a “Trump or Death” flag but again I doubt that guy is really willing to either kill or be killed when it comes down to it. He’s just another fucking idiot blowhard.

They aren’t brave. They’re just loud.

What about January 6? That was a perfect storm that I expect we won’t see repeated. Even then, considering how many stormed the Capitol at Trump’s urging, there was a surprisingly low death toll. They didn’t bring their AR-15s and go on a mass murder spree.

If Trump actually goes to prison there could be some riots and more violence, but again, not a civil war. Not an organized rebellion. Just a bunch of whiney fucking losers who will pay the price. The government has learned the lessons of January 6 and will be better prepared. What’s more, seeing those involved in January 6 going to prison will give many pause to participating in such insurrections in the future.

The real issue is the 2024 election.

There is too much money at stake in sustaining the status quo. Neither party wants the country to go up in flames, because they’re too busy cashing in on the labor of others while throwing bread and circuses their way.

The Republican Party prefers to achieve its nefarious ends via white collar crime like gerrymandering, disinformation, and voter suppression. That’s the shit we need to watch out for.

Get my sweary fucking history book ON THIS DAY IN HISTORY SH!T WENT DOWN.